PRUPIM Report: Asia Will Lead Property Recovery

Greater global economic stability should help spur investor interest in commercial markets, particularly in Asia and specific European cities, according to the International Real Estate Perspective published by investment firm PRUPIM.

“Next year will see good opportunities to buy selectively in more recovering markets, and, possibly, in yet others where pricing has still to reach its bottom ahead of more sustained recoveries in 2011,” wrote Paul McNamara, head of research at PRUPIM.

King Sturge Property Predictions 2010

This investor-focused 41-page reports sounds an ominous tone, noting stablization in many markets, but warning of a "false dawn" and possible valuation collapse in many markets by 2012. In the near-term, commercial markets throughout Europe will remain "soft," with office rents falling in Germany, Ireland and Spain. In the U.K., residential space should perform moderately well in 2010, but there are no guarantees for real growth until at least 2011, the firm predicts.

Knight Frank Global House Index, Third Quarter, 2009

Almost 70 percent of the reporting countries showed an uptick in valuations for the quarter, with Singapore reporting a 15.2 percent increase, the largest gain. But prices were still lower than a year earlier in 57 percent of the locations, with Dubai showing a whopping 47 percent annual drop. Spain, Denark and Ireland were among the countries still not showing a gain.

Urban Land Institute Emerging Trends, 2010

The annual report from the Urban land Instutute predicts tough times ahead for U.S. commercial property market. Values could decline from 40 to 50 percent off 2007 highs, while vacancies will increase and rents decline, the report predicts. On the upside, the next two years could present a "generational opportunity" for investors, especially buyers with cash. Washington D.C., San Francisco, Austin, Boston and New York are identified as the top markets to watch.

Analysis: Coverage of NAR Report Only Tells Part of Story

By Kevin Brass

Editor, International Property Journal

On one hand, the National Association of Realtors’ latest report on international buyers in the United States paints a fairly simple picture. The annual survey of agents found a slight decline in the number of Realtors who reported contacts from international buyers, from 26 percent in 2008 to 23 percent in the last year.

“Interest in U.S. real estate by international buyers declined due to the worldwide recession and severe credit crunch,” the trade association announced.

NAR Profile of International Buyers in the U.S.-2009

A survey of Realtors found a decrease in international buying activity from May 2008 to May 2009 compared to the previous 12 months. But a “significant number” of agents specializing in international sales continued to see an increase in business, especially in Florida, California, Texas and Arizona.

Knight Frank Global House Price Index, Q2, Sept. 2009

The quarterly report shows signs of “tentative recovery” around the world. But the data also revealed dramatic drops for Dubai, where prices were down 47 percent from a year earlier and 7.5 percent down from the previous quarter.

Merrill Lynch-CapGemini World Wealth Report-2009

The number of millionaires in the world dropped 14.9 percent in 2008, after two years of dramatic gains. But overall wealth is expected to grow by an annual rate of 8.1 percent through 2013, with Asia-Pacific passing North America as the home to the greatest number of high net worth individuals.