China

As more and more investors eye the Chinese property market, evidence is growing that a real estate bubble is forming, at least one expert believes.

"I do see all of the signs of a credit induced real estate bubble that I think is going to be a doozy," Kynikos Associates founder James Chanos told CNBC.

Chanos, a hedge fund manager, has been trumpeting the possibility of volatility in the market for weeks. In interviews this week he emphasized an “impending crash” is not imminent, but the bubble in China is “unprecedented.” There are about 30 billion square feet of commercial space under construction only, he said.

 

“Looking at companies, I'd be very leery of companies who are exporting materials to China to build up this construction bubble,” said Chanos, who CNBC introduced as a “famed short seller.”

 

The Chinese government recently moved to clamp down on the market, fearing foreign investors and speculators were running up the market. A recent report by Knight Frank showed dramatic increases in prices through China last year, including a 68 percent jump in Shanghai and a 66 percent increase in Beijing.

China’s official property market data may be “masking the degree that speculation is driving prices in some of the larger cities,” Ardo Hansson, the World Bank’s chief economist for China, told Bloomberg.

But The Street’s Clay Fisher argues the real estate bubble in China is a myth.

“The sheer volume of misinformation and crowd-think surrounding China's real estate market is staggering,” Fisher wrote in an article posted yesterday. “It seems the entire U.S. media has convinced itself a bubble exists, yet when we read what's printed, there's very little in the way of facts provided.”

Most purchases are made with at least 20 to 50 percent cash in China, which means there are few of the credit issues found in other markets, he notes.

“Even in relatively inexpensive real estate markets in cities like Lisbon and Warsaw today the nominal price of real estate is approximately 50 percent more expensive per square foot than in Beijing,” Fisher argues.

 


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Author: Kevin Brass has covered the quirks and trends of the global property industry for many than 20 years, including regular features and analysis in the International Herald Tribune and the New York Times.

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